The coalition between tribes, or party members, or terrorist organizations, are based upon fragile foundations which go beyond funding and available resources. Sometimes it is based on the cult of the individual or a sense of community. Here are four such diverse examples.
RadioRote
Afghanistan
The Taliban in Afghanistan have been showing an upsurge in force, or perhaps it has caught the attention of the media more so since the Canadians have taken charge from the US and now a safer target for the US media to report upon.
RadioRote had lightly touched upon Afghanistan now and then over these past years if only to share with Readers how opium growing was on the rise; only large cities were protected by allied forces and convoys were used to protect material and personnel from town to town -- it is rather like the Saudi Royal family who may have more influence in some areas of their country, but not neccesarily everywhere.
The area particularly difficult for them to hold is around the Southern East region of Saudi Arabia. Whereas other parts are held by paying off tribal leaders.In Afghanistan, the South is still controlled by the Taliban and there are indications that certain tribes are sitting on the fence to wait and see which side to join.
There is a shift in perception amongst these tribes as to whether or not the Allies or the Taliban will hold the upper hand and, hence, more advantageous for them to join.
Whosoever holds the force and resources may win the day in Afghanistan or certain other types of tribal regions. But given the complexity and duplicity found in a tribal enviroment, shared values also plays a distinct role in deciding the outcome.
RadioRote
Pakistan
In the neighboring country of Pakistan, the Western Allies found a way to convince Mr. Musharraf to join in the coalition of the willing by threatening a nuclear standoff between Pakistan and India.
Although both have nuclear arsenals, Pakistan does not have a sophisticated delivery mechanism. It does, however, have the capability of delivering the means of production to others.
Mr. Musharaff has since fallen in his stature as Pakistan's leader and criticized by a spectrum of interested parties for failing to deliver in other ways.Afghanistan Leaders and the West have tried to put pressure upon Mr. Musharaff to quell any Taliban activity in the Southern part of his country which is suspected of organizing missions into Afghanistan.
The Pakistan Intelligence Agency, the ISI, has not been keen towards him as he has removed high intelligence officials and reined in the ISI -- due to their support of the Taliban.
Similar to Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan, the Southern part of Pakistan is a region unto itself and not controlled by Mr. Musharaff who would probably rather ignore, then deal with, it.RadioRote shared with Readers several years ago a report which indicated bin Laden was taking refuge in Southern Pakistan.
Given the circumstances it is both possible yet highly difficult to verfiy on its own merit.We can only expect Mr. Musharaff to continue bearing pressure from divergent and powerful groups who expect results. It is a difficult task for him to coordinate without greatly upsetting one side and changing the political balance of power.
Should Mr. Musharaff fall within a year, by election or forceful means, which is a good possibility given the circumstances, we do not expect the West to support his return -- if that is even an option.
RadioRote
HAMAS
On the subject of has-beens, the one name which comes to mind is Mr. Abbas, the heir-apparent of Yassir Arafat -- whose fortunes have waned since HAMAS was elected. It was a forced election by the Bush Administration who supported the PLO-Fatah Abbas. Therein started the accelerated reversal by default.
We may remind Readers of our cynicism when stating as a foundation of any Gaza run region, that two terrorist groups could not share the spoils in an area the size of Gaza. One had to go, before a brinksmanship between Israel and the dominant terrorist organization would either end in annihilation of one side, or a negotiated accord.
Such as this forecast is taking shape.
Recently Hamas unsuccessfully tried to assassinate Tareq Abu Rajab, an Abbas ally and chief security officer.Another attempted assassination of a key Abbas ally by HAMAS was against Rashid Abu Shbak who is in charge of the HAMAS ladened Interior Ministry, whose department includes security forces.
But attempts were not kept to cabinet officials.According to the Sunday Times (UK) of May, 07, 2006:
"A HAMAS plot to assassinate Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, has been thwarted after he was tipped off by Israeli intelligence.
Hamas’s military wing, the Izza Din Al-Qassem, had planned to kill Abbas at his office in Gaza, intelligence sources said."
As the plots against messer's Shbak and Rajab were unfolding, Israel assassinated an expert armament maker and commander of the Islamic Jihad, Momammed Dadouha.There were also gun battles between HAMAS and PLO-Fatah (ironically named) security units and weapons fired by these rival factions into demonstrating crowds and suspected partisan villages.
Further, HAMAS organized a 3,000 manned armed unit despite objections from Mr. Abbas. Whereas a new militia, calling itself the "New Fatah", demanded Mr. Abbas dissolve the HAMAS parliment and warned against any inside or outside groups from harming its organization.By inside, we assume they mean HAMAS. Or do they?
Now a group with alleged al-Qaeda ties claimed responsibility for the attempted assassination of the PLO-Fatah Chief Security Officer, Mr. Rajab.This brings us to another point. Whether or not the attempt was made by al-Qaeda. One shift HAMAS does not want to see occuring under their leadership is a foreign jihadist group to make waves for them.
Any indication that al-Qaeda penetrated Gaza will be anathema for HAMAS.A major goal of al-Qaeda is to, in fact, penetrate the West Bank and Gaza, which does not sit well for Jordan, Egypt, Israel, HAMAS or the PLO-Fatah.
It is interesting to note that throughout all this turmoil, neither PLO-Fatah or HAMAS blamed Israel. They have come to realize they cannot afford the luxury to do so in the cold reality they have come to understand. It is the bed they made through years of corruption and a terrorism cottage industry turned against itself.
HAMAS knows it needs allies and soon. RadioRote shared with Readers our viewpoint as to why HAMAS went to Russia -- to open sub-rosa communication with the world while the West could claim plausable deniabilty.The Arab Knesset member from Israel,Azmi Bishara, went on the proverbial fishing expedition when he met with Hamas Foreign Minister Mahmoud Zahar in Apri of 2006, and this was apparently not the only meeting between Arab members of the Israeli knesset and HAMAS representitives.
Both parties need to find a way to settle this issue, if possible -- to neutralize the PLO-Fatah and stave of foreign jihadists.
We believe, as we have for several years, that another political heavy weight will be added to this mix -- that of the popular terrorist Marwan Barghouti, who is serving time in an Israeli prison for mass murder; someone we believed would have replaced Yassir Arafat or in line thereafter.
As one high ranking military officer once told RadioRote: "Choosing which of two terrorists to negotiate with is like having to choose between the plague and malaria." He sounded resigned in having to make the inevitable choice.This does not neccesarily mean fighting between HAMAS and Israel will end as soon as they sit down to negotiate -- anymore than it does for any two parties at war and at a conference table. Nor does it mean parties bent on sabotaging negotiations will not hesitate in doing so.
At the beginning of of 2006, Israel's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni met with then acting PM Olmert to discuss HAMAS. Mr. Livini stated that it was time to think hard about HAMAS and to explore all options.
At this interval, an ad-hoc understanding between them may be such option.Hamas and Israel, potential partners in peace, for the moment.
RadioRote
Canada
During the recent Canadian election, the current Tory PM, Stephen Harper was perceived as the candidate who wanted to start a better relationship with the Bush Administration and follow their lead in the areas of Star Wars, the Privatization of Health Care, and a Laissez-Faire Doctrine towards Corporations.
In the former government, the Liberal PM, Paul Martin the younger, acted cooly towards the US and refused to invest in their Star Wars project -- whereas the US sent an Ambassador to Canada who acted more like a missionary. To their bemusement, he talked down to Canadians as if they were the unwashed Bolshevik masses in need of a Capitalist Baptism.
Critics chided the Harper - Bush platform and labeled the Canadian PM a "Bush clone."Recently, the closeness they shared has become aloof and Mr. Harper does not want Mr. Bush to tell the world, or Canadians in particular, that he looked into Mr. Harper's eyes and got a sense of his soul as someone he can trust -- as was the para-normal examination Mr. Bush gave of Mr. Putin after their photo-op meeting.
As an aside, can someone who runs the "Evil Empire" have a soul? But we digress.
A June meeting between Messers Harper and Bush has been postponed on the excuse that no date was actually set anyway and no time is available between them even if they tried to do so. The non-meeting is now expected to take place in July.
The Bush Administration's recent meteoric rise in unpopularity (which RadioRote forecasted to hit 24% before his recent descent), gives Mr. Harper room to reflect.There are identifiable similarities between Messers Bush and Harper that the Canadian people and press have noticed. Both share a heightened sense of mistrust, to the point of dysfuntional, of information being allowed in or out about their Administration without their approval.
Further, both are highly sensitive towards anyone within their party who disagrees with their decisions -- and arranges tough responses against anyone around their circle who criticizes them, if merely once.In Mr. Harper's case, his influence extends from approving a minor speech given by a Tory minister, to what can be discussed by his party members with the press about Canada's direction. Both Messer's Bush and Harper are afraid of the media and would, like Mr. Musharaff and Southern Pakistan, rather pretend it does not exist if they can not control it.
But, given the lame duck Administration in the White House, Mr.Harper would like to extend his power grasp like an octopus, without playing into the squid's 'hands' of those who call him a Bush clone.
When asked about the similarities between Messer's Bush and Harper, a close associate to the Canadian PM stated that the two were not at all alike.The example of their differences rested in the fact, the associate said, that Mr. Harper was intelligent.
This, of course, means that when it comes to intelligence, the fellow in the White House is, well, in the bush leagues according to the Harper machine. Why then would a highly intelligent leader with a singular vision for Canada follow someone far less his equal and from another country who thought the name of the former Canadian PM was a food product named Poutine?
Quite a plausable denial until one thinks hard on it.
So here is another similarity between them: distancing oneself from a friend or ally when said friend or ally is in trouble.
Canada is , for the most part, a well educated country and polite society.They do not seem ready for a leader who runs a country based on his own romanticist ideas and strong arming measures.
RadioRote suspected Mr. Harper received advice from the Rove-esque faction on how to run an election campaign which was less than civil. There would be more booty for the corproate concubines once Mr Harper was in office.Now in power, he can create his own Canadian auto de fe.
Mr. Harper holds a lead of 38% in polling over the Liberal Party's 28%, with the NDP gaining 1 at 19%.One may merely think of the high polling rates Mr. Bush along the 80% range when RadioRote forecasted a warning, well-early on, of Mr. Bush and his impending fall to the 40's and 30's range based on the Administration's potential mishandling of the economy and Iraq.
This does not mean the Liberals will win big or even beat the NDP, but the direction Mr. Harper is taking Canada results in a higher than normal potential of leaving the Tory's out in the cold.
In recent past, when Canadians are angry at Liberals, they give the party a time out. When they are angry at Tories, they perform political genocide. It is the memory of the Mulroney election that Mr. Harper should recall, when all but two Tory members lost their seats in Parliment.
Should Mr. Harper continue to follow in the footsteps of Mr. Bush, he would have to snub Canada the way Mr. Bush has done throughout his term in office. Mr. Harper cannot be so intelligent if he does not understand the relationship between politics and vector analysis.
In other words, if he follows in the same footsteps of Mr. Bush, Mr. Harper could find his constituents less "inclined" to follow him any further down that same strewned rose petaled path.
The Rest is Silence
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Canada is going to great lengths to extend its influence around the world. The country certainly has the resources and possibilities to do so. But is Canada doing so because it has come of age or, in part, to delay a domestic fight on its hands?
