RadioRote: Russia. Ukraine. NATO. Naval Contemplation

RR Shortness of Breadth


We shared our view with Readers since this early decade how Russia will work on regaining its former colonies. In fact, with Russia losing 700,000 people a year in a demographic shift that threatens the future of Russians as a people due to ill health, aging, and emigration -- controlling their former colonies is necessary from their viewpoint, or disappear.

RadioRote also correctly forecasted in 2002 that Russia could expect a spate of terrorist attacks on their soil due to the war in Chechnya -- that is to say with the exception of bombings and kidnappings in Russia stemming from organized crime. Russia had become hit with terrorism within its borders.

In Chechnya's case, Russia understood how important a re-unified Russia-Georgia means to their survival or, at least, a neutralized Georgia. For Russia to rein in Chechnya, they theoretically have to back themselves up to the Turkish border as a way to squeeze Chechens.

Russia's political forays into Georgia's South and North Ossetia are such an indication. Both Ossetian areas were once in conflict with each other and then decided to join. Once they grew closer, they discussed becoming a part of Russia. When Georgia protested this move by Moscow into their territory, the Kremlin’s response was, in so many words, "are you looking to escalate this into a formal conflict?"

We knew that Russia was not in great shape by first world standards to physically re-take a country (and given the challenges the US faces in other parts of the world, it should be less surprising), but we also know that Russia's former colonies are in worse shape. Further they are economically and geographically closer to Russia than Belgium or the US.

Whereas the Black Sea Region connects Russia with some of its former colonies, the Ukraine is a land gateway. With NATO presence in the Black Sea, Russia's options become complicated.

Map: My Travel Guide. com

Click map for enlarged view.

.....................

For the Ukraine, the stakes are higher given the natural resources and geography it affords Russia. The Ukraine is the gateway for Romania, the Black Sea, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. In short, a good number of former Warsaw Pact countries. Whereas Turkey covers the southern part of the Black Sea, the Ukraine makes up the northern sea coast. Should NATO and Western countries dominate the Black Sea and extend an invitation to the Ukraine to become a member, Russia stands the chance of becoming shut off by land and sea from easier access into colonies once affiliated the Soviet Union.

There are political considerations between Russia and Ukraine which are long standing, though hardly considered anything close to a Kastor and Polix friendship.

Orion and Scorpius perhaps, but nothing of brotherly love.

Despite the 'warm friendship' gained from the Putin-Yushchenko joint agreement in defense and business, Mr. Yushchenko decided to create a more encompassing strategic and economic relationship with the West.

The Kremlin, particularly Mr. Putin, finds Mr. Yushchenko, to be a pain in Moscow’s side. Mr. Yushchenko literally finds the Kremlin to be a pain as there have been rumors the large amount of dioxon poison found in Mr. Yushchenko had Russian involvement.

Having won leadership and turning the Ukraine's back on Russia after the Orange Revolution, Mr. Yushchenko now finds the momentum of the revolution waning with groups in his country having second thoughts about their future -- or his in power. The country is home to circa 17% of Russians who constitute the largest minority. Many reside in the Black Sea Peninsula where the US, NATO, and Ukraine naval venture is to take place.

Further indications of this backlash are occurring as NATO and the US are planning on taking part in Naval maneuvers called Sea Breeze 2006, with the Ukraine. Protesters blocked the USS Advantage's entry into the Port of Feodosia and followed the US and NATO land convoys through parts of Northwest Crimea, a heavily populated Russian area, forcing the convoy and buses to find other cities to stay in, but were rebuffed from entering other back-up cities due to blockades and protests, with demonstrators yelling their "future was with Russia" and "Russia is our friend."

The Black Sea peninsula is home to a large ethnic Russian population and its main port, Sevastopol, which is circa 100 miles from Feodosia, is the naval port shared by Russia and the Ukraine. Hence, another reason why tensions runhigh.

The anti-NATO protest is taking place during a critical moment for Ukraine's unstable government, which is in the midst of coalition building process or on the verge or dissolving. It has yet to vote upon accepting NATO and the US forces into their territories and probably will avoid making that decision in the near future. The Feodosiya municipal council declared the area a 'no-NATO zone" and protestors surrounded the areas where the US marines and NATO troops are staying.

NATO was quick to point that although its troops are involved in Sea Breeze 2006, it is not a NATO sponsored event and the USS Advantage is not a NATO ship, and they take no responsibility for the US-Ukraine naval venture -- they claim to be only participants in the US - Ukraine naval activity. It is NATO's ‘strategic re-deployment’ and their way of 'backing off.'

Further, the Ukraine government initially misinformed their citizens by claiming the USS Advantage was entering the harbor to drop of Humvees and related supplies. The government later re-tracted this first claim and stated it was Ukraine's desire to become involved with US and NATO plans -- which did not endear the people to Yushchenko.

There are several reasons why only 20% of the Ukraine agrees with membership in NATO:

a) They are afraid that NATO will interfere with areas near the Ukraine, such as the Transdnestrian region, and will cause a political destabilization and boundary fragmenting -- as they perceive was the case with NATO's involvement with Kosovo.

b) The Ukraine manufactures weapons for Russia, the CIS, Southeast Asia and Russian friendly countries in Africa involved in conflicts (not to mention a healthy illegal gun running industry) . Their legal weapon sale in 2005 was up 5% to $680 million (USD). Membership in NATO may cut these contracts. The West would not purchase their weapons. Further, the transformation of weapon upgrades for the Ukraine in becoming NATO ready would be enormous. The Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe.

c) The US still owes millions of dollars (USD) to the Ukraine for use of their air space. The Bush Administration has become a deadbeat debtor for these services, whereas Europe has been more responsible in paying these debts. Joining NATO would lessen the Ukraine's ability of receiving funding for future NATO flyovers.

d) The protestors, and majority of Ukrainians, argue that allowing US and NATO troops on their soil was never debated as part of Yushchenko's platform during the election. Their Orange Revolution, they say, was meant to open dialogue between people, not to allow their government to set up policy at whim.

e) There is a disrust that NATO membership benefits only NATO. As long as the Ukraine is not antagonizing Russia, the anti-NATO groups counter, towards whom must the Ukraine stay on guard against regarding hostile nations?

Those from the West who oppose the Ukraine's membership into NATO, believe the longstanding relationship Russia had with the Ukraine, could color NATO's trust regarding Kyiv's intentions.

Mr. Yushchenko plans on passing a law allowing the joint naval activity to occur.

Making it into law is not the same as allaying Ukranian fear and reaction against foreign troops in their country. As we warned Readers in 2002, too much involvement in European countries by the EU will destroy the union in the Low Countries -- which is what occured. So we ask, is Sea Breeze 2006 only about a joint US, NATO, and Ukraine naval manuever -- or doubts about the future security and direction of the Ukraine post-Orange Revolution?

Should the naval manuevers be called off, it will be perceived as both a moral victory and political boon for Russia, a re-inforcement to further involve itself in Ukraine's affairs.

If the joint naval venture takes place, Russia will find itself considering an acceleration in the destabilization of the Yushchenko government. By taking advantage of a disgrunted populace and given the lull in the parliment, Kiev is rather vulnerable at the moment.

Either way, Russia has the upper hand, the Ukraine is at a disadvantage, and US-NATO forces may have to modify their current plan, being that they are in the middle of what has become a political gambit between two non-NATO countries.

The next few weeks will kick into gear the direction and relationship between the Ukraine and Russia for the next few years. It could become serious.

UPDATE: SINCE THIS RADIOROTE FORECAST, THE NAVAL EXCERCISE WAS CANCELLED, THE PRO-RUSSIAN PARTIES GAINED CONTROL OF THE UKRAINE, THE ORANGE REVOLUTION LOST MOMENTUM -- AND A SECURITY AGREEMENT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE UKRAINE WAS SIGNED WHEREAS RUSSIA HAS TAKEN THE UKRAINE BACK UNDER ITS SECURITY UMBRELLA, THROWING NATO ON ITS BACK BURNER.

WE HAVE BEEN STRONGLY POSITING THIS OUTCOME FOR MANY YEARS AND WILL CONSIDER IT ONE OF OUR SUCCESSFUL LONGITUDINAL FORECASTS.

Comments?

The Rest is Silence

Readers can view other comments or post a comment to share. Readers can also reach us privately at radiorote@yahoo.com or radiorote@radiorote.com